According to the Equifax score simulator, 60% of consumers have a score 700 or better? This seems high to me after reading this board for the past several weeks.
Does anyone else know if this is accurate? I would hate to think i was in the lower 20% of the population with a 660 score. I know it isn't much, but is that score that bad??
I THINK IT IS TOTALLY OFF WACK!!! ONLY 150 POINTS FROM 700-850!!! If I pay off 100% of my debt...I can not even get past 810-820!!! I STILL HAVE NO "BADDIES" STILL 25+ YEARS The only thing I never got was a CAR LOAN...that can't change my score that much if I got one...
I remember a college statistics professor once telling our class that statistics could easily be manipulated to show the inverse of any predicted outcome! In the 20 years since he stated this, I have heard (and saw) it repeated more than once. Statistics are just that, an estimation of a predicted outcome that is derived from a cross section (sampling) of a pool of data and variables that I seem to recall were termed a "population." How else could political polls so often show various political contenders to be highly ranked in terms of the other candidates, only to face defeat on election day? Simple, the people managing the statistical models are able to manipulate the data so as to illustrate what they want it to show! Based on current economic data such as the current unemployment, default, and foreclosure rates, currently the highest they have been in nearly 20-years, I dont see how FICO can continue to report such skewed data. In my optinion, it is more than likley due to the current economy in which I feel consumer confidence has been shaken. This in turn would mean that now, only specific segments of the population are making major purchasses such as homes. So if this is what is actually happening, I have to ask, wouldnt this be an indicator that the sample population from which FICO draws it statistical analysis is scewed and inaccurate because of the current state of the economy? Michael
So if this is what is actually happening, I have to ask, wouldn't this be an indicator that the sample population from which FICO draws it statistical analysis is screwed and inaccurate because of the current state of the economy? Michael ==================== Fico and the bankers couldn't care less about this because their shell games are making them lots and lots of money. The END ************************* LB 59
So if this is what is actually happening, I have to ask, wouldn't this be an indicator that the sample population from which FICO draws it statistical analysis is because of the current state of the economy? Michael ==================== FICO is all ready screwed and inaccurate because of the 70% inaccuracy contained in credit reports. The END ************************* LB 59
Re: Re: How accurate is this? Your analysis, like most statistics, is technically correct but far off base because FICO is trying to explain future bahavior of an individual based on past behavior of a group of people without even establishing that the individual is a part of the group. I liken FICO with trying to predict the likelihood that a dinosaur will crap in my back yard because one crapped in my neighbor's back yard 100 million years ago.
Your analysis, like most statistics, is technically correct 1* but far off base because FICO is trying to explain future behavior of an individual based on past behavior of a group of people without even establishing that the individual is a part of the group. 1*I liken FICO with trying to predict the likelihood that a dinosaur will crap in my back yard because one crapped in my neighbor's back yard 100 million years ago. ================ Flyingifr 1*Not only that but EVEN WORSE Fico is using fictitious and or incorrect information about the group in making their predictions 2*good comparison. Which shows Fico is nothing but legalized extortion. Here is an illustration of how Fico works. Take one sack of marbles representing you the consumer. Cra 1 reports 25 red marbles in the sack Cra 2 reports 25 blue marbles in the sack Cra 3 reports 25 green marbles in the sack FICO pulls the three reports and says your score is 25 each of red blue and green marbles. Now we open the sack and count the marbles and find that there were only 100 black marbles in it. Why did FICO fail to predict the correct color and number of marbles in the bag ?
It seems high because people with credit scores above 700 don't need to come to a credit repair board. When I first started in the mortgage buisness, I was with a sub-prime lender. Having only their programs to offer and seeing the credit reports of only their customers, I thought that an average credit score was about 560 and that a FICO of 620 was really high. If we saw a 700 FICO score, we would pass it around the office and be amazed. Now I do A paper loans and my customers are more representative of the overall population. I see 700 FICO scores all the time, and sometimes I see scores in the 800s. It's all a matter of perspective.
Re: Re: How accurate is this? That's an interesting observation, and I think that's absolutely correct. A little social psychology analog: When you ask smokers, "What percentage of the population smokes?", they always vastly overestimate the number, LOL. When I first joined this board two years ago, my score was in the 500s, and it seemed to me at the time that everybody else's was too. Had I been asked to draw my own FICO bell curve at the time, I would definitely have skewed it southward. Doc
